N.Y. Governor Navigating Political Thicket to Fill Clinton Seat
President-elect Obama has waited until today to officially announce New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's selection as Secretary of State, but the wrangling to determine her successor in the Senate has already been underway for weeks. In the middle of this political maelstrom is Democratic Gov. David Paterson, who is charged with nominating Clinton's temporary replacement until a special election is held in 2010. Paterson has signaled that he is likely to wait until Clinton's appointment in January before naming her successor.
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Meanwhile, Paterson is still trying to consolidate his grip on the governor's mansion after being elevated to the post in March after the resignation of Eliot Spitzer due to a sex scandal, and has his own re-election to worry about in two years' time.
Paterson has ruled out nominating himself. He has offered few other clues on his leanings, telling reporters last week only that for Clinton's replacment he will be "looking for a person with a combination of skills, that can represent a state has a significant rural, suburban and urban communities, which has different types of people that live in the state."As that statement alludes, the governor alluded to the intense pressure from competing sections of the state's population he needs to woo for the 2010 campaign.
Bronx-based New York Assemblyman Peter M. Rivera said that while Paterson faces "individual pressure" from would-be Senators, "a collective pressure is coming from the Hispanic community," as well as "from the upstate community." Paterson also may feel obliged to appoint a woman and keep the seat in female hands. These groups complain they are underrepresented in New York government, which is dominated by white men from the five boroughs of New York City.
The problem for Paterson is that there is no one politician who would fill all his demographic needs. Meanwhile, the appointment of New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the emerging favorite for the seat, may offer Paterson a more direct path to electoral victory by eliminating one of his biggest potential gubernatorial rivals.
The Short List Prominent Hispanic lawmakers likely to be considered for the post are Rep. Nydia M. Velazquez and Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion Jr. Both hail from New York City.
Velazquez, who has represented the Lower East Side of Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn and Queens in Congress since 1992, was recently named chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
She has "the kind of experience that would be beneficial to everybody and she'd get a tremendous amount of support among the Hispanic community," said Rivera, who is one of the few Hispanic lawmakers in the New York Assembly.
Rivera added that Carrion Jr., though relatively young at 46, has built an extensive political network both in New York and nationally, and has established himself as a capable fundraiser.
New York is home to more than three million Hispanics residents, and they make up approximately 12 percent of eligible voters, the eighth largest Hispanic voter share in the country, according to the latest data from the Pew Hispanic Center.
Paterson also faces growing calls to appoint a Senator from outside New York City, though the consensus in the New York political community is that a true upstate politician is a long shot for the nomination.
If Paterson bucks expectations and opts to go that direction, top names include Rep. Brian Higgins, who is in his second term representing parts of Buffalo and its environs, and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown.
Erie County Democratic Party Chairman Leonard R. Lenihan said Higgins would be a popular choice in Western New York and could help Paterson in 2010.
"Upstate is always very much in play and the Republicans certainly focus on upstate when they're running for statewide races," Lenihan said, adding that having Higgins or another Buffalo-area lawmaker on the ticket would blunt much of the criticism that state Democrats are too New York City-centric.
Paterson also could tap a lawmaker from the New York City suburbs and surrounding regions and still claim some credit for expanding the pool of leaders beyond the city, itself.
Two female members of Congress who fall into this category have earned prominent mention -- Westchester County Rep. Nita M. Lowey, who stepped aside when Clinton decided to run for the Senate seat in 2000, and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand -- a young, fundraising powerhouse out of the Hudson Valley starting her second term in office in January.
From Long Island, leading candidates include Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who's father is a partner in the same law firm as the governor's father, former New York secretary of State Basil Paterson, and Rep. Steve Israel.
The most oft-discussed potential successor, Cuomo, however, does not fit any of Paterson's demographic criteria. Cuomo has three strikes against him as a white male from New York City, but his status as a potential challenger to Paterson in 2010 may be tempting enough for the governor to send Cuomo to Washington. Plus, Cuomo's name recognition, thanks in part to his father, popular former New York City mayor Mario Cuomo, would make him an easy choice for New Yorkers to digest.
A Marist poll released last week showed 43 percent of registered voters would support Cuomo's appointment. Velazquez was a distant second with five percent. Forty-two percent of respondents remained unsure.
Other New York City denizens that have rated mention as possible Clinton successors include Reps. Carolyn B. Maloney, Gregory W. Meeks and Jerrold Nadler.
Two dark horse candidates are cousins Caroline Kennedy, who emerged from a self-enforced political exile to endorse President-elect Barack Obama this year, and environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Neither has held political office before, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said he would consider running for the seat once held by his father.
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